Viewing archive of Saturday, 6 December 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 510 (S23W96) produced frequent x-ray flares through the day. Its largest were an M1 at 1120 UTC and an M2 at 1546 UTC. This region was by far the most active center, as the other spotted regions were quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be generally low. There is a declining probability of an M-class flare as Region 510 rotates farther beyond west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. A high speed stream's influence diminished throughout the day. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at GOES were at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the next 48 hours. Enhanced solar wind may cause periods of minor storming during local nighttimes. Activity should increase again on 9 December as another high speed stream is due.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
Class M20%10%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Dec 109
  Predicted   07 Dec-09 Dec  105/105/105
  90 Day Mean        06 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec  021/043
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Dec  020/022
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec  020/020-015/015-025/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%35%
Minor storm15%10%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%35%45%
Minor storm20%15%25%
Major-severe storm10%05%10%

All times in UTC

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