Viewing archive of Monday, 22 December 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest flare this period
was a C5/Sf from Region 528 (N09E23). This region was responsible
for several other smaller C-class flares. Mixed polarities are
obvious in the central and trailing portions of this spot group,
where most of the activity is occurring. Isolated low C-class flares
also occurred in Region 530 (S21E50). Region 525 (N08W10) continues
to exhibit some mixed polarities, but remains relatively quiet. New
Region 531 (N01W21) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a small chance for an M-class flare from Regions 525 and
528.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Solar wind speed
remains elevated, ranging 600 - 650 km/s since late on 21 December.
This high speed stream is associated with a well positioned
transequatorial coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels for a brief period
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active levels
through 23 December. The high speed coronal hole stream that is
creating this disturbance should begin to subside on the 23rd.
Mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 24 - 25 December.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Dec 138 Predicted 23 Dec-25 Dec 140/140/135 90 Day Mean 22 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec 018/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec 015/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec 012/015-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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