Viewing archive of Wednesday, 31 December 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. A very impulsive M1 flare occurred at 31/1824Z from Region 528 (N09W93) on the west limb. NOAA SXI imagery suggests additional active regions just beyond the east limb which will be rotating into view soon. In addition, there has been a slight increase in background X-ray levels over the past twenty four hours most likely due to the increased activity on the east limb. New Region 534 (S05E40) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be a low levels with at slight chance of moderate activity. Active regions beyond the east limb are expected to have C-class potential.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. A coronal hole high speed stream increased solar wind speed to 600 km/s and produced minor storm levels. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field exhibited oscillations between +5 and -10 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels. The high speed stream is expected to produce active levels on 01 January. Activity should decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on 02 - 03 January.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jan to 03 Jan
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Dec 106
  Predicted   01 Jan-03 Jan  100/095/095
  90 Day Mean        31 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec  003/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Dec  017/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan  020/030-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan to 03 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm00%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%35%30%
Minor storm20%10%05%
Major-severe storm15%05%01%

All times in UTC

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