Viewing archive of Sunday, 21 March 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 081 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 576 (S07W91),
while transiting the west limb, produced the largest flare of the
day; a C6 flare at 21/0952Z. Region 578 (N15E34) continues to
exhibit slow growth and while maintaining a beta magnetic
configuration, shows evidence of mixing polarities. The majority of
the B-class and C-class activity observed today originated from
Region 578. Region 574 (S04E01) continues a slow decay but
maintains its beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Regions 574 and 578 have C-class potential. A small
chance of isolated moderate activity is possible from Region 578.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Mar to 24 Mar
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Mar 111 Predicted 22 Mar-24 Mar 110/110/115 90 Day Mean 21 Mar 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Mar 008/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar 008/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar to 24 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Whitehorse, YTAnchorage, AK, Fairbanks, AK, Juneau, AK
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