Viewing archive of Saturday, 20 March 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 080 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 578 (N15E47)
produced a C1 flare at 20/2025Z along with eight B-class flares.
This region grew in area coverage and exhibits weak polarity mixing
but still maintains a beta magnetic configuration. Region 574
(S04E14) continues in a slow decay and has produce little activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels with a slight chance of isolated moderate
level activity. Region 578 has C-class flare potential and a small
chance of an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. One period of
isolated active conditions was observed at the Boulder magnetometer.
The Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated periods of
active conditions may occur on 21 March, particularly during local
night time hours.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
| Class M | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Mar 114 Predicted 21 Mar-23 Mar 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 20 Mar 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar 010/015-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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