Viewing archive of Thursday, 29 April 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Apr 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Region 596 (S07W92)
has moved beyond the visible limb, but produced some minor B-Class
flaring as it departed. A new active region (N05E61) has appeared
near the East limb, and produced a minor B-class flare event on 29
Apr at 0926 UTC. It has some plage, but no discernable spots and
therefore has not yet been numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to rise to active levels for the 30th of April, due to a
possible transient passage associated with a C3.1 x-ray event on 27
April. The geomagnetic field should return to quiet to unsettled
levels for the 1st and 2nd of May.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Apr to 02 May
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Apr 089 Predicted 30 Apr-02 May 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 29 Apr 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 015/020-010/010-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr to 02 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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