Viewing archive of Saturday, 1 May 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 May 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. There have been several C-class x-ray events, a C2.8 on 01 May at 0755 UTC, and a C9.5 at 1536 UTC, all from Region 601 (S09W34). This region has grown both in area and number of spots over the last 24 hours. Region 602 (S13W66) remains steady. Region 603 (S15W37) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain low. There is an increased chance for an isolated M-class x-ray event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels. A combination of southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and elevated solar wind speeds disrupted the Earth's magnetic field for most of 30 April and into 01 May. A transient passage combined with a solar sector boundary crossing appear to have influenced the magnetic field earlier on 30 April.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at unsettled to active levels for the rest of 01 May. By 02 and 03 May, a high-speed solar wind stream associated with a coronal hole is expected to intersect the Earth's magnetic field. Activity should increase to minor storming late on 02 May and into early 03 May, dropping back down to active levels by 04 May as the high-speed stream passes.
III. Event Probabilities 02 May to 04 May
Class M20%20%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 May 094
  Predicted   02 May-04 May  095/095/095
  90 Day Mean        01 May 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr  009/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 May  011/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May  012/015-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May to 04 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%30%
Minor storm15%20%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%40%35%
Minor storm20%30%20%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%

All times in UTC

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