Viewing archive of Monday, 10 May 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 May 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. A disappearing solar filament was observed on 10 May at approximately 0350 UTC from the area of Region 606 (S09E40).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet through 12 May, then increase slightly to unsettled levels on 13 May with the possible effects of the disappearing solar filament of 10 May.
III. Event Probabilities 11 May to 13 May
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 May 093
  Predicted   11 May-13 May  095/090/090
  90 Day Mean        10 May 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 May  007/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 May  006/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May  005/010-005/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May to 13 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%35%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%35%
Minor storm15%15%25%
Major-severe storm05%05%10%

All times in UTC

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