Viewing archive of Thursday, 27 May 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 May 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 148 Issued at 2200Z on 27 May 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 618 (S10W27) produced a C1/Sf flare that occurred at 27/0027Z. This region continued to show decay in magnetic complexity and sunspot area during the period. The delta structure near region center remains intact. Region 619 (S09W89) managed to produce a C1 flare just before the sunspots vanished in white light. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 618 continues to exhibit the potential for producing isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. NOTE: The ACE spacecraft orbit will bring ACE nearly in line with the Sun from about May 30 to June 2, 2004. During that time solar radio noise is expected to interfere with spacecraft telemetry resulting in the loss of solar wind plasma, magnetic field, and particle data.
III. Event Probabilities 28 May to 30 May
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 May 102
  Predicted   28 May-30 May  100/100/105
  90 Day Mean        27 May 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 May  003/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 May  004/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May  004/010-004/010-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 May to 30 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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