Viewing archive of Tuesday, 8 June 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jun 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to very low levels today. Region 621 (S14W70) produced the largest flare of the period, a B8/Sf flare that occurred at 08/1847Z. White light shows a pair of umbra spots in an alpha magnetic configuration. Region 627 (S08W09) underwent a slight growth in sunspot area during the period with no flare production noted. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. Regions 621 and 627 have the potential to produce C-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels. The anticipated arrival of a shock resulting from the long duration C2 flare that occurred on 7 June is expected no later than 10 June. Active conditions with a chance of minor storm levels may be observed, especially at higher latitudes, following the onset of the shock. 11 June will most likely return to quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jun to 11 Jun
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Jun 086
  Predicted   09 Jun-11 Jun  085/090/095
  90 Day Mean        08 Jun 103
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jun  007/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Jun  006/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun  010/015-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jun to 11 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%25%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm02%06%02%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%30%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

All times in UTC

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