Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 June 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 635 (S11W53)
produced two C-class flares, a C1.4/Sf at 24/0559 UTC and a C1.7/Sf
at 24/0621 UTC. Region 635 maintained a beta-gamma-delta
configuration while growing slightly in size. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 635 is expected to produce C-class flares, and isolated
M-class flares are possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for all three days (25-27 June),
with periods of isolated active and minor storm conditions on day
three (27 June) as Earth comes under the influence of a high speed
solar wind stream from a coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jun to 27 Jun
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jun 108 Predicted 25 Jun-27 Jun 100/095/095 90 Day Mean 24 Jun 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun 002/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jun 003/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun 004/012-005/012-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun to 27 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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