Viewing archive of Tuesday, 29 June 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Several B-class flares occurred in Region 639 (N13E46). Some minor magnetic mixing is evident in this growing region. No significant changes were observed in the remaining active regions.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels. There is a small chance for a C-class flare from Region 639.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. The disturbed periods are due to a coronal hole high speed stream that began yesterday and peaked at near 600 km/s midway through the period. The IMF Bz component was mostly northward, but switched southward towards the end of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with occasional active periods. The current weak disturbance is expected to subside by 1 July.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jun to 02 Jul
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Jun 085
  Predicted   30 Jun-02 Jul  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        29 Jun 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun  011/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Jun  018/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul  012/020-010/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun to 02 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%25%25%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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