Viewing archive of Monday, 12 July 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jul 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. An M1 x-ray flare occurred at 12/0808 UTC from the east limb near SE08. New Region 649 (S10E76) rotated into view near the site of the M-flare as a small C-type sunspot group. More sunspots are likely to rotate into view within the next 24 hours. New Region 648 (N14W08) emerged on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Additional C-class flares are expected and another M-class flare is possible. The source of this activity is expected to be the active region area at the southeast limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. The high-speed stream conditions that were apparent in the ACE solar wind data yesterday appear to be easing.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are possible.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jul to 15 Jul
Class M20%30%40%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Jul 125
  Predicted   13 Jul-15 Jul  130/135/140
  90 Day Mean        12 Jul 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul  013/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Jul  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul  010/012-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul to 15 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%50%50%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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