Viewing archive of Friday, 16 July 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jul 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
Solar activity was high. Region 649 (S10E26) produced
three X-class flares: an X1 at 0206 UTC, an X1/1f at 1041 UTC, and
an X3/3b at 1355 UTC. All of these events were impulsive and none
were associated with an obvious CME in the LASCO data. However, a
weak type II radio sweep was observed in association with the X3
event. Region 649 has shown some consolidation of spots in the
leader and in the trailer areas and the region is maintaining
complexity - the delta configuration in the dominant trailer
penumbra continues to be the primary location for the flare
activity. Two new regions are just visible on the east limb in
GOES-12 SXI images at S11 and N05. The region to the north rotated
into view at (N05E88) and was assigned SWO region number 652.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 649 is expected to continue to produce
M-class flares and has a fair chance for producing more major flare
activity during the next three days (17-19 July). These events could
become geoeffective (i.e. earthward directed CMEs or proton events)
as the region evolves and as it moves near central meridian and into
the western hemisphere.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, although there
was one active period from 2100-2359 on 15 July.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days (17-19
July). As noted previously, however, there is a possibility that
Region 649 could produce some events that could increase geomagnetic
activity during the forecast interval.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jul to 19 Jul
Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
Class X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
Proton | 15% | 20% | 25% |
PCAF | Green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jul 147
Predicted 17 Jul-19 Jul 150/150/150
90 Day Mean 16 Jul 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul 007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul 010/012-008/012-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul to 19 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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