Viewing archive of Tuesday, 20 July 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jul 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels today. Region 652 (N10E32) produced an M8/3b major flare at 20/1232Z with an associated Tenflare of 3000 sfu's. A Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 485 km/s and a Type IV also accompanied the flare. The C6/Sf flare that occurred at 20/1126Z in conjunction with the flare mentioned above produced what appears as a full halo CME signature on LASCO C3 imagery. The delta structure seen as the dominate intermediate spot remains intact and the magnetic classification continues to exhibit beta-gamma-delta properties. Region 652 continues to show growth in spot area which now exceeds 1600 millionths in white light. Region 649 (S10W27) continues to show decay and was limited to C-class flare activity today. Delta structures are evident in the leading polarity spot cluster while yesterday's trailing polarity delta spot is no longer discernible. A significant and continued loss of spot area was again seen over the past 24 hours. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region 652 is capable of producing further major flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels on 21 and 22 July. A shock passage from the combination of the C6 and M8 x-ray flares today is expected to pass the ACE spacecraft early on 23 July.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jul to 23 Jul
Class M75%75%75%
Class X30%30%30%
Proton15%20%25%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Jul 175
  Predicted   21 Jul-23 Jul  180/175/170
  90 Day Mean        20 Jul 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul  011/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Jul  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul  008/008-010/012-025/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul to 23 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%40%
Minor storm05%10%25%
Major-severe storm01%05%15%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%45%
Minor storm05%15%25%
Major-severe storm01%05%15%

All times in UTC

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