Viewing archive of Friday, 13 August 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Aug 13 2210 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity increased to high levels today. Region
656 (S13W22) produced an X1/1n major flare at 13/1812Z with an
associated 180 sfu Tenflare. Imagery from the LASCO instrument
remains insufficient at the time of this writing for determination
of CME activity. Region 656 also produced an M1/Sf flare that
occurred at 13/0729 and an M1/1f event that occurred at 13/1209Z,
neither of these flares had any significant CME activity observed on
LASCO imagery. Region 656 continues to exhibit a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic classification and did show a very slight growth in sunspot
area during the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 656 remains very capable of
producing further isolated major flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 14 August with the
anticipated arrival of a CME from the activity that was observed
late on 10 August. Isolated active periods may be possible on day
two (15 August) at higher latitudes due to lingering effects from
the expected shock. A return to predominantly quiet conditions is
expected for day three in lieu of further imagery from SOHO/LASCO.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Aug to 16 Aug
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Aug 149 Predicted 14 Aug-16 Aug 155/155/150 90 Day Mean 13 Aug 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug 006/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug 006/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug 012/015-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug to 16 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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