Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 August 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Aug 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was at high levels today. Region 656
(S13W48) produced multiple M-class flares again today, the largest
was an M9/1n that occurred at 15/1241Z that had an associated faint
CME seen on SOHO/LASCO imagery emanating from the southwest solar
quadrant. This CME does not appear to be Earth-directed. Sun spot
area showed a slight increase from yesterday and the
beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure has undergone little change over
the past 24 hours. The remainder of the active regions were
quiescent throughout the period. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 656 remains capable of producing
isolated major flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
active conditions may occur throughout the period due to the
potential of weak flanking blows from the CME activity observed over
the past couple days.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Aug 139 Predicted 16 Aug-18 Aug 135/135/130 90 Day Mean 15 Aug 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug 006/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug 004/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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