Viewing archive of Monday, 30 August 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Aug 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 663 (N04W73) produced a C2.4 at 30/0311 UTC and a C1.0 flare at 1818 UTC. A Type II radio sweep was observed with the C2.4 flare at 0325 UTC. Region 663 has grown slightly as it approaches the west limb and was observed at 140 millionths in white light. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Region 663 may produce C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
Geophysical activity has been at quiet to active levels. A minor shock was observed at approximately 29/1900 UTC, most likely from a CME associated with an erupting prominence observed on 27 Aug. Bz at ACE remained below -10 nT for most of the day.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days. Active conditions are possible early on day one (31 Aug) due to residual effects from the CME shock observed 30 Aug.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Aug to 02 Sep
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Aug 090
  Predicted   31 Aug-02 Sep  090/100/110
  90 Day Mean        30 Aug 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug  005/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Aug  020/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep  010/012-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug to 02 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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