Viewing archive of Saturday, 4 September 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Sep 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. A halo CME was observed on the SOHO/LASCO imagery today. The event does not appear to be directed toward Earth.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Sep to 07 Sep
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Sep 099
  Predicted   05 Sep-07 Sep  100/105/105
  90 Day Mean        04 Sep 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep  001/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Sep  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep  008/008-008/008-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep to 07 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%30%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

All times in UTC

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