Viewing archive of Friday, 10 September 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Sep 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 672 (N05E60) produced multiple C-class flares today, the largest was a C6 x-ray flare that occurred at 10/1613Z. Region 671 (S09W81) was quiescent today and is approaching the western solar limb. Region 669 (S06W78) was also quiet today and exhibited slight growth in the intermediate cluster of spots during the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at mostly low levels with a chance for an isolated M-class flare, particularly from Region 672.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Sep 130
  Predicted   11 Sep-13 Sep  120/125/125
  90 Day Mean        10 Sep 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Sep  004/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep  005/008-008/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%20%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

All times in UTC

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