Viewing archive of Sunday, 12 September 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Sep 12 2210 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 672 (N05E33) produced an M4/2n long duration event with multiple flare centers that occurred at 12/0057Z and had an associated Type IV radio sweep, a Type II radio sweep (estimated shock velocity of 800 km/s), and a Tenflare of 2400 sfu. SOHO/LASCO imagery was limited during the period but data indicates that a full halo CME resulted from the M4 x-ray flare and is expected to become geoeffective (see IIB). Region 672 underwent little change during the period in spot area and the region retains a beta-gamma magnetic classification. Region 667 (S11W72) produced a M3/Sn very impulsive event (sympathetic flare from the M4 event based on SXI and Mauna Loa H-alpha data) at 12/0139Z that had an associated Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 870 km/s. The M3 flare also appears to have produced a CME that should merge with the previously mentioned CME. This region remains a magnetically simply structured beta group. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 672 remains capable of producing isolated low level M-class flares, and has a slight chance of producing a major event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 13 September through much of 14 September. Late on 14 September a shock passage from the long duration M4 flare mentioned in IA is anticipated. Major to severe storming may likely occur following the onset of the shock and dominate the first half of the period on 15 September. Further, a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream is also expected to become geoeffective on 15 September and continue into 16 September. Levels should return to predominantly quiet to unsettled levels late on 16 September.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Sep to 15 Sep
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Sep 115
  Predicted   13 Sep-15 Sep  110/100/095
  90 Day Mean        12 Sep 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep  001/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Sep  002/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep  008/010-010/015-040/050
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep to 15 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%40%
Minor storm05%05%30%
Major-severe storm01%01%25%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%30%35%
Minor storm05%10%35%
Major-severe storm01%05%30%

All times in UTC

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