Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 September 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Sep 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Region 672 (N05W17)
produced a B8.7/Sf at 16/0030 UTC and a B8.4/Sf at 0345 UTC. Region
672 has decayed slightly but has maintained a beta-delta magnetic
configuration. Region 673 (S12E61) is in better view for
observation and, with trailer spots behind a larger lead spot, is in
a beta-gamma configuration. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Regions 672 and 673 may produce C-class flares. Both regions are
capable of isolated M-class flares as well.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. There has been a
slight rise in solar wind speed at ACE since 1600 UTC, to about 550
km/s at the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for 17 September, from the
effects of increased solar winds from a geoeffective coronal hole.
Activity should subside for 18-19 September to quiet to unsettled
levels.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Sep to 19 Sep
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Sep 108 Predicted 17 Sep-19 Sep 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 16 Sep 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep 009/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Sep 020/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep 015/020-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep to 19 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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