Viewing archive of Tuesday, 5 October 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Oct 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A C1.4 flare was observed at 05/0056 UTC from a spotless plage region near S11E75.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Oct 091
  Predicted   06 Oct-08 Oct  095/100/105
  90 Day Mean        05 Oct 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct  008/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Oct  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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