Viewing archive of Tuesday, 12 October 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Oct 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. New Region 681 (N12W09) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active conditions on 13-14 October from the effects of recurrent high-speed solar wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Oct to 15 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Oct 088
  Predicted   13 Oct-15 Oct  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        12 Oct 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct  009/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Oct  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct  015/015-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct to 15 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%20%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%30%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

All times in UTC

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