Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 October 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Oct 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Occasional B-class flares were observed from Region 682 (S14E24). No significant changes were observed in this region, which continues to exhibit some minor magnetic complexity. B-class flares were also observed from an active region rotating into view on the east limb near S04. No other activity or changes were noted.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Region 682 may produce isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet with an isolated unsettled period between 16/0000 - 0300Z. Very stable solar wind conditions existed through the latter half of the period with solar wind speed near 350 km/s and the IMF Bz near zero. The greater than 2 Mev electron flux at geosynchronous orbit has been at high levels since midday on 14 October.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are possible on 18 and 19 October due to a weak high speed solar wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Oct 092
  Predicted   17 Oct-19 Oct  095/095/090
  90 Day Mean        16 Oct 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct  006/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Oct  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct  008/008-008/012-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%25%30%
Minor storm05%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

All times in UTC

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