Viewing archive of Tuesday, 26 October 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Oct 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 687 (N12W11) produced
a C2.2 flare at 26/1506 UTC. This Region exhibited some decay in
both white light area coverage and magnetic complexity. Region 691
(N15E32), still shows a beta-gamma-delta configuration and produced
a C1.3 flare at 26/1839 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 687 and 691 have potential for M-class
activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed at ACE declined
from approximately 470 km/s to 420 km/s during the reporting period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Oct 137 Predicted 27 Oct-29 Oct 135/135/130 90 Day Mean 26 Oct 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct 009/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct 005/005-005/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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