Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 November 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Nov 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest C-class event of
the period was a C9/Sf flare at 24/2145 UTC from Region 706
(S08E56).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance of an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with one period at 25/0600
UTC of minor storm conditions at high latitudes. Solar wind speed
at ACE has steadily increased during the last 24 hours from around
380 to 550 km/s. This increase is likely due to the recurrent
coronal hole. Prolonged periods of southward Bz components were
responsible for the minor storming conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are
possible for 26 November as the geomagnetic field continues to be
under the influence of the coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Nov to 28 Nov
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Nov 109 Predicted 26 Nov-28 Nov 110/115/115 90 Day Mean 25 Nov 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov 012/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov 010/015-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov to 28 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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