Viewing archive of Thursday, 2 December 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Dec 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 707 (S14W37)
produced a few small B-class flares but was otherwise quiet. Region
708 (N09E01), which produced M-class activity yesterday, was stable
today. Growth in both regions has slowed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. C-class activity is possible in Regions 707 and 708.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The coronal hole
induced activity of the past few days is ending. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high. The
Fredericksburg A index for 01 Dec reported in Part V is estimated
from Boulder observations.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet. Activity levels may increase by 05 Dec
as another coronal hole high-speed stream rotates into position.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Dec to 05 Dec
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Dec 106 Predicted 03 Dec-05 Dec 105/100/100 90 Day Mean 02 Dec 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec 011/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec 008/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec 005/005-005/005-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec to 05 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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