Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 January 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jan 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 022 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. There
were three C-class flares: a C3 at 0432 UTC from the west limb at
S07, a C1 at 1245 UTC from the west limb at N14, and a C1 at 2053
UTC from the west limb at N15. The first flare was probably from old
Region 719 which recently rotated around west limb, and the other
two were probably from Region 720 which rotated off the disk today.
With the departure of Region 720, Region 725 (S04W49) is now the
largest group on the disk with an area of about 190 millionths.
Region 725 has been growing steadily but so far has produced only
minor flare activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low. There is a chance for an M-class event, and a slight
chance for a major flare event, from Region 720 during the next 24
hours (23 January). However, the likelihood for M-class or higher
level events is expected to decline strongly for the 2nd and 3rd
days (24-25 January) as the region gets further beyond the west
limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels from the
beginning of the period (21/2100 UTC) through 22/0600 UTC. Since
0600 UTC conditions have been mostly unsettled. Solar wind
signatures show a steady decline in velocity from around 950 km/s at
the beginning of the interval down to about 650 km/s by 22/2100 UTC.
Bz has been weak and density has been low since 22/0200 UTC up to
the current time. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes continued to
decline today and appear to have dropped below threshold of 10 PFU
after 22/1755 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active tomorrow (23 January) in response
to a favorably positioned coronal hole. Mostly unsettled levels with
some active periods are expected for 24-25 January.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jan to 25 Jan
| Class M | 40% | 25% | 10% |
| Class X | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| Proton | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jan 102 Predicted 23 Jan-25 Jan 095/090/090 90 Day Mean 22 Jan 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan 030/061 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan 020/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan 016/020-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan to 25 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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