Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 February 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Feb 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 055 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled on 25 February as the recurrent high speed stream becomes geoeffective. Expect unsettled to active conditions with minor storm periods possible at higher latitudes on 26 and 27 February.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Feb 080
  Predicted   25 Feb-27 Feb  080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        24 Feb 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Feb  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb  010/015-012/020-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm15%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%15%15%

All times in UTC

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