Viewing archive of Tuesday, 31 May 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 May 31 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 151 Issued at 2200Z on 31 May 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 770 (N12W27), a
seemingly simple spot group, had the one C-class flare of the day.
It produced a C2/Sf at 1442UTC with associated type II sweep. It has
been quiet since that event. One new region, Region 772 (S18E50) was
numbered, making a total of five spotted regions visible.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to persist
at the low level.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Yesterday's storm
conditions have passed and the field has returned to more normal
conditions. Energetic electrons at geosynchronous orbit attained
high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled. There is a slight chance of a
small disturbance later in the period from a possible CME associated
with the C2/Sf with type II that occurred today.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jun to 03 Jun
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 May 096 Predicted 01 Jun-03 Jun 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 31 May 092
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 May 032/067 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 May 015/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun 010/015-010/012-010/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jun to 03 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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