Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Tuesday, 31 May 2005

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 May 31 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 151 Issued at 2200Z on 31 May 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 770 (N12W27), a seemingly simple spot group, had the one C-class flare of the day. It produced a C2/Sf at 1442UTC with associated type II sweep. It has been quiet since that event. One new region, Region 772 (S18E50) was numbered, making a total of five spotted regions visible.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to persist at the low level.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Yesterday's storm conditions have passed and the field has returned to more normal conditions. Energetic electrons at geosynchronous orbit attained high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be generally unsettled. There is a slight chance of a small disturbance later in the period from a possible CME associated with the C2/Sf with type II that occurred today.

III. Event Probabilities 01 Jun to 03 Jun

Class M	10%	10%	10%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       31 May 096
  Predicted   01 Jun-03 Jun  095/095/095
  90 Day Mean        31 May 092

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 30 May  032/067
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 May  015/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun  010/015-010/012-010/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jun to 03 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	25%	25%	25%
Minor storm	10%	10%	10%
Major-severe storm	05%	05%	05%

B. High Latitudes
Active	30%	30%	30%
Minor storm	10%	10%	10%
Major-severe storm	05%	05%	05%

All times in UTC

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