Viewing archive of Thursday, 17 November 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Nov 17 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 822 (S07E15) produced numerous B-class flares during the last 24 hours. The largest of these included a B5.8/Sf event occurring at 17/0143Z and a B6.6 event occurring at 17/0314Z. A slight growth in the number of sunspots was observed during this period. This region remains a beta-gamma spot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 18-19 November. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 20 November.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Nov 101
  Predicted   18 Nov-20 Nov  100/100/100
  90 Day Mean        17 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov  001/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Nov  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov  005/005-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%20%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

All times in UTC

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