Viewing archive of Monday, 28 November 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Nov 28 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. A long duration
B2 x-ray enhancement was associated with a small eruption in Region
824 (S14W35) at around 28/0830Z. An associated CME was observed on
LASCO imagery at 28/0954Z; however, the CME was slow and mostly
westward directed, and is therefore unlikely to be geoeffective. One
of at least two new regions rotating into view on the east limb was
numbered today as Region 826 (S02E62).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. There is a slight chance of a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled with isolated
active periods.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active periods on 29 November. Minor storm periods with high
latitude major storm periods are possible on 30 November and 01
December as a recurrent coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective
position.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Nov to 01 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Nov 082 Predicted 29 Nov-01 Dec 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 28 Nov 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec 008/010-012/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov to 01 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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