Viewing archive of Tuesday, 13 December 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Dec 13 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
Solar activity was very low. Today's activity consisted
of several B-class events, mostly from Region 835 (N17E33). Region
835 continues to be the largest group on the disk with about 180
millionths sunspot area, but has been stable and unchanging during
the last 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (14-16 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled during the next three days (14-16
December).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Dec to 16 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Dec 088 Predicted 14 Dec-16 Dec 090/090/085 90 Day Mean 13 Dec 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec 005/005-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec to 16 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NTAnchorage, AK, Fairbanks, AK, Juneau, AK, Utqiagvik, AK
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