Viewing archive of Saturday, 4 March 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Mar 04 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 063 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
Solar activity was very low. A small, 5-degree filament
near S21E10 disappeared sometime between 1525Z and 1757Z. A few
small spots have re-emerged in Region 856 (S10E01).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours (05 March).
Conditions should be predominantly quiet for 06-07 March.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Mar 075 Predicted 05 Mar-07 Mar 077/077/077 90 Day Mean 04 Mar 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 010/012-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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