Viewing archive of Friday, 19 May 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 May 19 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was very low. New Region 884 (S13E47)
was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. An isolated period of
active conditions was observed at 18/2100 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for 20 May. Predominately quiet
conditions are expected for 21-22 May.
III. Event Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 May 075 Predicted 20 May-22 May 077/079/080 90 Day Mean 19 May 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May 011/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May 005/008-005/005-003/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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