Viewing archive of Thursday, 6 July 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jul 06 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was moderate with a single M-class flare
(M2/2F) occurring at 0836Z accompanied by type II and type IV radio
sweeps. The estimated shock speed of the type II radio sweep was
565 km/sec. The M2 was associated with a disappearing solar
filament (extent of 11 degrees) and a partial halo CME (plane of sky
speed of 824 km/sec) from the southwest limb. Region 898 (S08W41)
features a large negative polarity leader spot with a fragment
splitting off to the southwest. There is an incursion of positive
polarity flux penetrating the main spot. Region 899 (S05E56) was
quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low,
but there is a chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an active interval
from 05/2100 - 06/0300Z. The solar wind speed remains elevated due
to a coronal hole high speed stream but has steadily declined during
the past 24 hours. An enhancement of greater than 10 MeV protons
began around 1030 UTC in response to the M2 flare and CME. The
maximum flux reached approximately 2 PFU. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for July 07 - 08. An increase to
active, with a chance for periods of minor storm levels may occur
sometime July 09 due to the arrival of the flank of today's CME.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jul to 09 Jul
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jul 085 Predicted 07 Jul-09 Jul 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 06 Jul 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul 018/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jul 012/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul 007/008-007/010-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul to 09 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 20% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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