Viewing archive of Wednesday, 23 August 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Aug 23 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 905 (S08E47), the
only sunspot group on the visible disk, produced isolated B-class
flares. This active region exhibited little change this period and
maintains a reversed polarity magnetic structure.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare
from Region 905.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
declined from a maximum of near 500 km/s to end the period at 420
km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Aug 078 Predicted 24 Aug-26 Aug 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 23 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug 017/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 008/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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