Viewing archive of Wednesday, 23 August 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Aug 23 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 905 (S08E47), the only sunspot group on the visible disk, produced isolated B-class flares. This active region exhibited little change this period and maintains a reversed polarity magnetic structure.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare from Region 905.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed declined from a maximum of near 500 km/s to end the period at 420 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Aug 078
  Predicted   24 Aug-26 Aug  080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        23 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug  017/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Aug  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug  008/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%30%30%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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