Viewing archive of Thursday, 7 September 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Sep 07 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 909 (S09E09) produced a long duration B4.2 flare at 07/0746 UTC. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for an isolated C-flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet with an isolated active period at middle latitudes between 07/0600 - 0900 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Sep to 10 Sep
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Sep 087
  Predicted   08 Sep-10 Sep  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        07 Sep 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Sep  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep  004/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep to 10 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NT
Fairbanks, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Iqaluit, NU, Saskatoon, SK
Anchorage, AK, Juneau, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Calgary, AB
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (651.1 km/sec.)
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-58nT)

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