Viewing archive of Wednesday, 6 September 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Sep 06 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. New Region 909 (S08E25) was numbered today. Both Regions 907 (S13E31) and 909 have shown an increase in number of spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for an isolated C-flare from Regions 907 or 909.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Sep to 09 Sep
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Sep 084
  Predicted   07 Sep-09 Sep  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        06 Sep 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep  007/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Sep  006/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep  004/008-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep to 09 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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