Viewing archive of Sunday, 10 September 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Sep 10 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 909 (S11W30) produced a long duration B6 event at 10/0723 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for an isolated C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 12-13 September due to possible effects from a coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet conditions are expected for 14 September.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Sep 087
  Predicted   11 Sep-13 Sep  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        10 Sep 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep  001/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Sep  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep  008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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