Viewing archive of Wednesday, 8 November 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Nov 08 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity was very low. New Region 923 (S05E71)
produced multiple B-class flares in the last 24 hours. The largest
of these was a B6 at 08/1233Z. The large leader spot in this new
sunspot group is now visible. Region 921 (S06W66) produced a couple
of low-level B-class flares today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There remains a chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region
923.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active, with possible minor storm
periods on 09-10 November as a recurrent coronal hole rotates into a
geoeffective position. Quiet to active conditions are expected on
11 November.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Nov to 11 Nov
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Nov 086 Predicted 09 Nov-11 Nov 090/090/085 90 Day Mean 08 Nov 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov 000/000 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov 015/025-010/015-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov to 11 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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