Viewing archive of Friday, 17 November 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Nov 17 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Region 923 (S05W48)
continues to decrease in area and number of spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. Region 923 (S05W48) continues to have the potential for
isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (18 - 20 November).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Nov 090 Predicted 18 Nov-20 Nov 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 17 Nov 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov 005/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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