Viewing archive of Wednesday, 29 November 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Nov 29 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity was low due to a C1 flare from Region 927 (N10E32) at 1518Z. Region 927 continues to grow and has developed some magnetic complexity: there appears to be a small delta configuration in the dominant trailer spot. Region 926 (S10E19) is growing slowly but is magnetically simple and only managed to produce one B-class flare during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next three days (30 November - 2 December). Region 927 is the most likely source for an isolated C-flare. There is a very slight chance for an M-class event over the next three days, especially if the growth trend in Region 927 continues.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet with a chance for some unsettled periods at high latitudes for the next three days (30 November - 2 December).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Nov to 02 Dec
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Nov 085
  Predicted   30 Nov-02 Dec  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        29 Nov 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Nov  006/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec  007/005-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov to 02 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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