Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 December 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Dec 16 2234 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity declined to very low levels today.
Region 930 (S06W72) remains a magnetically complex region. Some
decay was noted in the penumbra of the delta structure in the
southern portion of the large asymmetrical sunspot. Several minor
B-class flares were observed during the period from Region 930. No
new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 930 remains capable of producing an
isolated X-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The elevated
conditions were due to the lingering effects of the transient
resulting from the X3 flare that occurred on 13 December. A shock
passage was observed at the ACE spacecraft at approximately 16/1722Z
which was followed by a Sudden Impulse at the Boulder magnetometer
at 16/1756Z (13 nT). This latest disturbance is associated with the
X1 flare that occurred on 14 December. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from active to major storm levels with isolated
severe storm conditions possible on 17 December due to the effects
of today's transient passage. A return to quiet to unsettled levels
are expected on 18 and 19 December.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
| Class M | 60% | 25% | 10% |
| Class X | 25% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 25% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Dec 082 Predicted 17 Dec-19 Dec 080/075/075 90 Day Mean 16 Dec 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec 048/104 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec 030/040-008/010-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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