Viewing archive of Friday, 22 December 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Dec 22 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity continues at very low levels. No activity of note was observed from old active Region 926, which is rotating onto the visible disk near S08.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. A high speed coronal hole stream is creating occasional active periods. Solar wind speed increased to near 750 km/s this period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again this period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on 23 December. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 24 and 25 December.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Dec 073
  Predicted   23 Dec-25 Dec  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        22 Dec 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec  009/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Dec  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec  010/015-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%15%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%20%
Minor storm20%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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