Viewing archive of Tuesday, 2 January 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jan 02 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 002 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 933 (S03E40) has
produced only B-class activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare from
Region 933.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active, with a single
minor storm period observed at high latitudes. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of approximately 650 km/s today, and remains elevated
at 550 km/s due to the coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for isolated minor
storm periods at high latitudes on 03 - 04 January due to the
coronal hole high speed stream. Expect mostly unsettled conditions
on 05 January.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jan 090 Predicted 03 Jan-05 Jan 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 02 Jan 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan 018/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan 015/025-010/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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