Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 January 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jan 13 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 013 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was very low. New Region 938 (N02E61)
was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on 14 January. On 15 January, quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected. On 16 January, a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective
causing active to minor storm conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jan 081 Predicted 14 Jan-16 Jan 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 13 Jan 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 005/005-008/010-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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