Viewing archive of Monday, 12 February 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Feb 12 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 043 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was very low. There are no spotted
regions on the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled with a single
active period. This active period is due to a coronal hole high
speed stream rotating into a geoeffective position. Solar wind
speed is currently 440 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with the possibility of isolated
periods of minor storming.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Feb 074 Predicted 13 Feb-15 Feb 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 12 Feb 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 015/020-010/015-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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