Viewing archive of Monday, 19 February 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Feb 19 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 050 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was low. New Region 493 (S12E04) was
numbered today. This region produced a C1/sf event at 19/0010 UTC.
Eight minutes after the C-class event, a Type II radio sweep was
observed with a speed of 500 km/s.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. An isolated C-class event is possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at
geosynchronous orbit were at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Feb 075 Predicted 20 Feb-22 Feb 075/080/080 90 Day Mean 19 Feb 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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